2026 Kentucky Derby, Race Day Cheat Sheet¶
Race 12 · Churchill Downs · 1¼ mi dirt · Post: 6:57 PM ET · Field: 19 (5 scratched) · Track: TBD
🐎 Our $85 in (locked)¶
WIN ($40): - $20 #18 Further Ado (Forest Green) · 6-1 · Velazquez/Cox · ROCK SOLID overlay - $10 #1 Renegade (Red) · 6-1 · I.Ortiz/Pletcher · rank overlay, post-1 risk - $10 #19 Golden Tempo (Moonstone) · 25-1 · J.Ortiz/DeVaux · ROCK SOLID overlay
EXACTAS ($39): - $3 ea, 18 KEY 4, 19, 1 - $2 ea, 19 KEY 1, 18 - $2 ea, 4 KEY 1, 6, 8 - $1 ea, 1 KEY 3, 4, 8, 14, 18, 19 - $2 BOX 18-19 - $5 BOX 4-18 (the boost)
TRIFECTAS ($6): - $0.50, 1 / 4-18-19 / 4-18-19 - $0.50, 4 / 1-18-19 / 1-18-19
Home runs to root for: 4-18 pays $2,941 · 18-4 pays $3,864 · 1-4 pays $219
The Field¶
| PP | Color | Horse | ML | Live | Trainer / Jockey | Tag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red | Renegade | 4-1 | 6-1 | Pletcher / I.Ortiz Jr | 🟢 BET (rank) · post 1 risk |
| 2 | White | Albus | 30-1 | 44-1 | R.Mott / Franco | skip |
| 3 | Blue | Intrepido | 50-1 | 47-1 | Mullins / Berrios | skip · in tri |
| 4 | Yellow | Litmus Test | 50-1 | 25-1 | Baffert / Garcia | 🟢 KEY (FT blinkers, Baffert comeback) |
| 6 | Black | Commandment | 6-1 | 5-1 | Cox / Saez | 🔴 FADE (overbet) |
| 7 | Orange | Danon Bourbon (JPN) | 20-1 | 14-1 | Ikezoe / Nishimura | story horse, skip |
| 8 | Pink | So Happy | 15-1 | 5-1 | Glatt / Mike Smith | 🔴 FADE (heaviest overbet) |
| 10 | Purple | Wonder Dean (JPN) | 30-1 | 25-1 | Takayanagi / Sakai | UAE Derby winner, skip |
| 11 | Gray | Incredibolt | 20-1 | 25-1 | R.Mott / J.Torres | skip |
| 12 | Lime | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 | 7-1 | Wm Mott / Alvarado | 🔴 FADE (FT blinkers narrative overbet) |
| 14 | Maroon | Potente | 20-1 | 18-1 | Baffert / J.Hernandez | marginal · in tri |
| 15 | Khaki | Emerging Market | 15-1 | 9-1 | Brown / Prat | overbet (Klarman) |
| 16 | Copen Blue | Pavlovian | 30-1 | 47-1 | O'Neill / Maldonado | skip · in tri |
| 17 | Navy | Six Speed | 50-1 | 35-1 | Seemar / B.Hernandez | UAE story, skip |
| 18 | Forest Green | Further Ado | 6-1 | 6-1 | Cox / Velazquez | 🟢 TOP BET (Cox barn-pick) |
| 19 | Moonstone | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | 25-1 | DeVaux / J.Ortiz | 🟢 BET (public hasn't found) |
| 21A | Lavender | Great White | 50-1 | 23-1 | Ennis / Achard | AE activated, skip |
| 22A | Postal Blue | Ocelli | 50-1 | 76-1 | Beckman / Ramos | AE activated, skip |
| 23 | Seafoam | Robusta | 50-1 | 76-1 | O'Neill / Jaramillo | Calumet silks, skip |
Scratched: 5 Right to Party · 9 The Puma · 13 Silent Tactic · 20 Fulleffort · 24 Corona de Oro
Pace Shape Projection, meltdown likely¶
E (early speed, want lead): 4 Litmus Test, 16 Pavlovian, 17 Six Speed, 23 Robusta P (presser): 1 Renegade, 14 Potente, 10 Wonder Dean S (stalker): 6 Commandment, 12 Chief Wallabee, 8 So Happy, 9 The Puma (SC) Closer: 18 Further Ado, 15 Emerging Market, 19 Golden Tempo, 11 Incredibolt Deep closer: 2 Albus, 3 Intrepido
→ With 4 confirmed E's plus pressers, expect a hot pace meltdown. Closers and stalkers benefit. Fulleffort and Right to Party (deep closers) scratched, which slightly thins the closer pool but pace thesis still stands.
Watch For¶
- Renegade's first turn. Post 1 = rail death historically (1 winner in 50 modern Derbies, Ferdinand 1986). If Irad Ortiz Jr. gets pinched or has to gun him to clear, the post-1 thesis is confirmed and our hedge into Further Ado pays.
- Pace at the half. If they go in :46 flat or faster, the meltdown is on and closers wake up. Slow half = front-runners hold.
- Velazquez positioning Further Ado. Cox barn-pick, Johnny V usually finds the right spot. Stalk-and-pounce pattern past the half-mile pole.
- Litmus Test break. First-time blinkers should sharpen him. If he gets out clean and to the lead, he's dangerous in the exacta spot at $25-1 live.
Big-Race Trivia (for non-handicappers)¶
- Bob Baffert is back from his 4-year suspension. Litmus Test (#4 yellow) is his comeback Derby horse with first-time blinkers.
- Mike Smith on So Happy (#8 pink) is 60+ years old, Hall of Famer, won 2018 Triple Crown on Justify.
- William Mott (Hall of Famer) trains #12. His SON Riley Mott trains #2 and #11, three Mott horses in the field.
- Litmus Test's father is Nyquist, the 2016 Derby winner. Father-son shot at the same race.
- Renegade is on the rail. Last horse to win from post 1: Ferdinand, 1986.
- No filly, no female jockey in this year's field. All colts, all male riders.
Repo: github.com/nigelglenday/horse-math Open question: whether the token spend clears the net winnings.